Abstract
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) created the GenomeTrakr Whole Genome Sequencing (WGS) Network in 2013, as a tool to improve food safety. This study presents an analysis of Whole Genome source tracking implementation on potential food contamination and related illnesses through theoretical, empirical, and cost benefit analyses. We conduct empirical tests using data from FDA regulated food commodity outbreaks garnering FDA response from 1999 through 2019 and examine the effect of the National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI) Pathogen detection program of source tracking WGS isolates collected in the U.S. on outbreak illnesses for three pilot pathogens (E. coli, Listeria, and Salmonella). Empirical results are consistent with the theoretical model and suggest that each additional 1,000 WGS isolates added to the public NCBI database is associated with a reduction of approximately 6 illnesses per WGS pathogen, per year. Empirical results are connected to existing literature for a Monte Carlo analysis to estimate benefits and costs. By 2019, annual health benefits are estimated at nearly $500 million, compared to an approximately $22 million investment by public health agencies. Even under conservative assumptions, the program likely broke even in its second year of implementation and could produce increasing public health benefits as the GenomeTrakr network matures.