Abstract
The objective of the study was to analyse the economic effects of introducing alternative Salmonella control strategies in Sweden. Current control strategies in Denmark and the Netherlands were used as benchmarks. The true number of human Salmonella cases was estimated by reconstructing the reporting pyramids for the various scenarios. Costs were calculated for expected changes in human morbidity (Salmonella and two of its sequelae), for differences in the control programmes and for changes in cattle morbidity. The net effects (benefits minus costs) were negative in all scenarios (€ -5 to -105 million), implying that it would not be cost-effective to introduce alternative control strategies in Sweden. This result was mainly due to an expected increase in the incidence of Salmonella in humans (6035-57108 reported and unreported new cases/year), with expected additional costs of € 5-55 million. Other increased costs were due to expected higher incidences of sequelae (€ 3-49 million) and a higher cattle morbidity (€ 4-8 million). Benefits in terms of lower control costs amounted to € 4-7 million.