Abstract
Little is known about the evaluation of ecological restoration measures using species distribution models (SDMs) at the microscale. This study investigated the effect of arbor-bush-herb mixed plantation (ABHMP) on the potential distribution of D. dichotoma using SDMs in the typical microtopographies of the red soil hilly region of China. We examined D. dichotoma growth, microtopography, and environment-related factors at the microscale. The percentages of microtopographies and D. dichotoma physiology factors increased in the order from the valley to the ridge in the D. dichotoma patches. The valley had milder temperatures, higher humidity, and more fertile soil than the ridge in the gullies. Microclimate factors were the most critical environmental factors affecting the distribution of D. dichotoma, followed by soil factors, whereas the microtopography factors had only a marginal effect. The predicted potential distribution of D. dichotoma under the ABHMP scenario was nearly 3-fold higher than the current distribution, and the suitable area was located mostly in the level trenches and the valley. ABHMP had a strong effect on the potential distribution of D. dichotoma, and SDMs proved to be a valuable tool for assessing ecological restoration measures at the microscale.