Abstract
Food security is threatened by newly emerging pests with increased invasive potential accelerated through globalization. The Neotropical jumping plant louse Russelliana solanicola Tuthill is currently a localized potato pest and probable vector of plant pathogens. It is an unusually polyphagous species and is widely distributed in and along the Andes. To date, introductions have been detected in eastern Argentina, southern Brazil and Uruguay. Species distribution models (SDMs) and trait comparisons based on contemporary and historical collections are used to estimate the potential spread of R. solanicola worldwide. We also extend our analyses to all described species in the genus Russelliana in order to assess the value of looking beyond pest species to predict pest spread. We investigate the extent to which data on geographical range and environmental niche can be effectively extracted from museum collections for comparative analyses of pest and non-pest species in Russelliana. Our results indicate that R. solanicola has potential for invasion in many parts of the world with suitable environmental conditions that currently have or are anticipated to increase potato cultivation. Large geographical ranges are characteristic of a morphological subgeneric taxon group that includes R. solanicola; this same group also has a larger environmental breadth than other groups within the genus. Ecological modelling using museum collections provides a useful tool for identifying emerging pests and developing integrated pest management programs.