Abstract
Debris flows represent a persistent challenge for disaster prediction in mountainous regions due to their highly nonlinear and multivariate triggering mechanisms. This study proposes an explainable deep learning framework, the Improved Kepler Optimization Algorithm-Convolutional Neural Network-Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit-Attention (IKOA-CNN-BiGRU-Attention) model, for precise debris flow hazard prediction in the Yunnan section of the Nujiang River Basin, China. The model is developed and validated using data from 159 debris flow-prone gullies, integrating deep convolutional, recurrent, and attention-based architectures, with hyperparameters autonomously optimized by IKOA. Model explainability is enhanced using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), which quantify the influence of key factors. The IKOA-CNN-BiGRU-Attention framework consistently outperforms 13 benchmark models, achieving a root mean square error of 2.33 × 10-6, mean absolute error of 1.51 × 10-6, and mean absolute percentage error of 0.006%. The model maintains high stability across 50 repeated experiments, strong resilience to 20% input noise, and robust generalizability under five-fold cross-validation. Interpretability analysis identifies potential source energy and maximum 24-hour rainfall as primary determinants and uncovers a dual-threshold physical mechanism underlying debris flow initiation. These findings provide a quantitative basis for adaptive early warning and targeted risk mitigation, and establish a transferable framework for explainable geohazard prediction.