Abstract
Endemic and restricted-range species are considered to be particularly vulnerable to the effects of environmental change, which makes assessing likely climate change effects on geographic distributions of such species important to the development of integrated conservation strategies. Here, we determined distributional patterns for an endemic species of Dianthus (Dianthus polylepis) in the Irano-Turanian region using a maximum-entropy algorithm. In total, 70 occurrence points and 19 climatic variables were used to estimate the potential distributional area under current conditions and two future representative concentration pathway (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) scenarios under seven general circulation models for 2050. Mean diurnal range, iso-thermality, minimum temperature of coldest quarter, and annual precipitation were major factors that appeared to structure the distribution of the species. Most current potential suitable areas were located in montane regions. Model transfers to future-climate scenarios displayed upward shifts in elevation and northward shifts geographically for the species. Our results can be used to define high-priority areas in the Irano-Turanian region for conservation management plans for this species and can offer a template for analyses of other endangered and threatened species in the region.