Abstract
El Niño events, the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, facilitate the movement of warm surface waters eastwards across the Pacific Ocean. Marine organisms transported by these waters can act as biological corridors for water-borne bacteria with attachment abilities. El Niño events have been hypothesized as driving the recent emergence of Vibrio parahaemolyticus (Vp) variants, marine bacterium causing gastroenteritis, in South America, but the lack of a robust methodological framework limited any further exploration. Here, we introduce two new analysis approaches to explore Vp dynamics in South America, which will be central to uncovering Vp dynamics in the future. Distributed non-linear lag models found that strong El Niño events increase the relative probability of Vp detection in Peru, with a 3-4-month lag time. Machine learning found that the presence of a specific gene (vopZ) involved in attachment to plankton in a pandemic Vp clone in South America was temporally associated with strong El Niño events, offering a possible strategy for survival over long-range dispersal, such as that offered by El Niño events. Robust surveillance of marine pathogens and methodological development are necessary to produce resolute conclusions on the effect of El Niño events on water-borne diseases.