Abstract
OBJECTIVES: To establish and validate deep learning (DL) models based on pre-treatment multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) images of primary rectal cancer and basic clinical data for the prediction of synchronous liver metastases (SLM) in patients with Rectal cancer (RC). METHODS: In this retrospective study, 176 and 31 patients with RC who underwent multiparametric MRI from two centers were enrolled in the primary and external validation cohorts, respectively. Clinical factors, including sex, primary tumor site, CEA level, and CA199 level were assessed. A clinical feature (CF) model was first developed by multivariate logistic regression, then two residual network DL models were constructed based on multiparametric MRI of primary cancer with or without CF incorporation. Finally, the SLM prediction models were validated by 5-fold cross-validation and external validation. The performance of the models was evaluated by decision curve analysis (DCA) and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. RESULTS: Among three SLM prediction models, the Combined DL model integrating primary tumor MRI and basic clinical data achieved the best performance (AUC = 0.887 in primary study cohort; AUC = 0.876 in the external validation cohort). In the primary study cohort, the CF model, MRI DL model, and Combined DL model achieved AUCs of 0.816 (95% CI: 0.750, 0.881), 0.788 (95% CI: 0.720, 0.857), and 0.887 (95% CI: 0.834, 0.940) respectively. In the external validation cohort, the CF model, DL model without CF, and DL model with CF achieved AUCs of 0.824 (95% CI: 0.664, 0.984), 0.662 (95% CI: 0.461, 0.863), and 0.876 (95% CI: 0.728, 1.000), respectively. CONCLUSION: The combined DL model demonstrates promising potential to predict SLM in patients with RC, thereby making individualized imaging test strategies. CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT: Accurate synchronous liver metastasis (SLM) risk stratification is important for treatment planning and prognosis improvement. The proposed DL signature may be employed to better understand an individual patient's SLM risk, aiding in treatment planning and selection of further imaging examinations to personalize clinical decisions. CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER: Not applicable.