Abstract
BACKGROUND: Wilson's disease (WD) often leads to liver fibrosis and cirrhosis, and early diagnosis of WD cirrhosis is essential. Currently, there are few non-invasive prediction models for WD cirrhosis. The purpose of this study is to non-invasively predict the occurrence risk of compensated WD cirrhosis based on ultrasound imaging features and clinical characteristics. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of the clinical characteristics and ultrasound examination data of 102 WD patients from November 2018 to November 2020 was conducted. According to the staging system for WD liver involvement, the patients were divided into a cirrhosis group (n = 43) and a non-cirrhosis group (n = 59). Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent influencing factors for WD cirrhosis. A nomogram for predicting WD cirrhosis was constructed using R analysis software, and validation of the model's discrimination, calibration, and clinical applicability was completed. Due to the low incidence of WD and the small sample size, bootstrap internal sampling with 500 iterations was adopted for validation to prevent overfitting of the model. RESULTS: Acoustic Radiation Force Impulse (ARFI), portal vein diameter (PVD), and serum albumin (ALB) are independent factors affecting WD cirrhosis. A nomogram for WD cirrhosis was constructed based on these factors. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the model's predictive ability is 0.927 (95% CI: 0.88-0.978). As demonstrated by 500 Bootstrap internal sampling validations, the model has high discrimination and calibration. Clinical decision curve analysis shows that the model has high clinical practical value. ROC curve analysis of the model's rationality indicates that the model's AUC is greater than the AUC of using ALB, ARFI, and PVD alone. CONCLUSION: The nomogram model constructed based on ARFI, PVD, and ALB can serve as a non-invasive tool to effectively predict the risk of developing WD cirrhosis.