Abstract
Metabolic rate, the rate of energy use, underpins key ecological traits of organisms, from development and locomotion to interaction rates between individuals. In a warming world, the temperature-dependence of metabolic rate is anticipated to shift predator-prey dynamics. Yet, there is little real-world evidence on the effects of warming on trophic interactions. We measured the respiration rates of aquatic larvae of three insect species from populations experiencing a natural temperature gradient in a large-scale mesocosm experiment. Using a mechanistic model we predicted the effects of warming on these taxa's predator-prey interaction rates. We found that species-specific differences in metabolic plasticity lead to mismatches in the temperature-dependence of their relative velocities, resulting in altered predator-prey interaction rates. This study underscores the role of metabolic plasticity at the species level in modifying trophic interactions and proposes a mechanistic modelling approach that allows an efficient, high-throughput estimation of climate change threats across species pairs.