Abstract
In order to predict related risk factors for lymph node metastasis (LNM) in patients with superficial esophageal carcinoma (SEC) and provide reference for endoscopic minimally invasive treatment, we included a total of 93 patients with superficial esophageal carcinoma who have underwent esophagectomy and lymph node dissection from 2010 to 2015. The depth of invasion was remeasured and classified into 6 groups according to their wall penetration. The prediction model was founded based on the independent risk factors. The results shows that lymph node metastasis of m1, m2, m3, sm1, sm2, and sm3 of superficial esophageal carcinoma was 0%, 0%, 5.3%, 8.7%, 17.6%, and 37.5%, respectively. The tumor size, differentiation, and lymphvascular invasion were also significantly related to lymph node metastasis by univariate analysis. Multivariate analysis showed that the depth of invasion and lymphovascular invasion were independent risk factors of lymph node metastasis. A prediction model for lymph node metastasis was established as follows: p = e(x) /(1 + e(x) ), and x = -5.469 + 0.839 × depth of invasion + 1.992 × lymphavascular metastasis. The area under ROC curve was 0.858 (95% CI: 0.757-0.959). It was also shown that the depth of invasion was related to tumor differentiation, macroscopic type, and tumor size.