Abstract
PURPOSE: Although laparoscopic splenectomy and azygoportal disconnection (LSD) can significantly decrease portal vein pressure and even the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with cirrhotic portal hypertension (CPH), postoperative HCC inevitably occurs in certain patients. The purpose of this study was to seek a novel preoperative non-invasive predictive indicator to predict the occurrence of postoperative HCC. PATIENTS AND METHODS: From April 2012 to April 2022, we collected clinical data of 178 hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related CPH patients. Based on inverse treatment probability weighting, candidate variables for predicting postoperative HCC were determined by means analysis. Then, a novel preoperative non-invasive prediction indicator (ie, type IV collagen-alpha fetoprotein-fibrosis-4 score [IVAF-FIB-4]) was established based on candidate variables, and its predictive ability was explored. RESULTS: Postoperative HCC occurred in 9 (5.1%) patients. Correlation analyses showed that the IVAF-FIB-4 had a significant positive correlation with HCC (r = 0.835, P < 0.001). IVAF-FIB-4 showed a high accuracy (the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.939, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.818-1.000; sensitivity: 88.9%; specificity: 93.5%). At the end of follow-up, the incidence density of HCC in patients with IVAF-FIB-4 (1) was significant higher than that in patients with IVAF-FIB-4 (0) (138.1/1000 vs 1.1/1000 person-years; rate ratio: 130.475, 95% CI: 16.318-1043.227). In logistic regression, IVAF-FIB-4 was an independent risk factor for HCC (odds ratio: 668.000, 95% CI: 53.895-8279.541; P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: IVAF-FIB-4 is a novel preoperative noninvasive predictive indicator for predicting postoperative HCC in HBV-related CPH patients after LSD, with satisfactory predictive ability.