Abstract
BACKGROUND: Accurate prognosis is crucial for improving hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients, clinical management, and outcomes post-liver resection. However, the lack of reliable prognostic indicators poses a significant challenge. This study aimed to develop a user-friendly nomogram to predict HCC patients' post-resection prognosis. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed the data from 1091 HCC patients, randomly split into training (n=767) and validation (n=324) cohorts. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves determined the optimal cut-off value for alpha1-microglobulin (α1MG) and Beta2-microglobulin (β2MG). Kaplan-Meier analysis assessed microglobulin's impact on survival, followed by Cox regression to identify prognostic factors and construct a nomogram. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram were measured by the concordance index (C-index), calibration curves, area under the ROC curve (AUC), and decision curve analysis (DCA), and were compared with the BCLC staging system, Edmondson grade, or BCLC stage plus Edmondson grade. RESULTS: Patients with high β2MG (≥2.395mg/L) had worse overall survival (OS). The nomogram integrated β2MG, BCLC stage, Edmondson grade, microvascular invasion (MVI), and serum carbohydrate antigen 199 (CA199) levels. C-index for training and validation cohorts (0.712 and 0.709) outperformed the BCLC stage (0.660 and 0.657), Edmondson grade (0.579 and 0.564), and the combination of BCLC stage with Edmondson grade (0.681 and 0.668), improving prognosis prediction. Calibration curves demonstrated good agreement between predicted and observed survival. AUC values exceeded 0.700 over time, highlighting the nomogram's discriminative ability. DCA revealed superior overall net income compared to other systems, emphasizing its clinical utility. CONCLUSION: Our β2MG-based nomogram accurately predicts HCC patients' post-resection prognosis, aiding intervention and follow-up planning. Significantly, our nomogram surpasses existing prognostic indicators, including BCLC stage, Edmondson grade, and the combination of BCLC stage with Edmondson grade, by demonstrating superior predictive performance.