Abstract
PURPOSE: This study aims to compare the efficacy of drug-eluting bead transarterial chemoembolization (DEB-TACE) versus conventional TACE (cTACE), both combined with apatinib, and to establish predictive nomograms to support individualized survival prediction in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This retrospective study assessed HCC patients from June 2015 to December 2019. Patients were classified as DEB-TACE plus apatinib (D-apatinib) and cTACE plus apatinib (c-apatinib). The endpoints were overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS). The nomograms were constructed, and the C-index, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and calibration curves were used to validate the nomograms. Propensity score matching (PSM) analysis was applied to reduce patient selection bias. RESULTS: A total of 174 patients were included. After PSM analysis, 58 pairs of patients were selected. Before PSM analysis, the median OS and PFS were 21.0 and 8.0 months in the D-apatinib group, respectively, which were better than the 18.0 and 5.0 months observed in the c-apatinib group (P < 0.05). The complete response (CR) rate and objective response rate (ORR) of the D-apatinib group were higher than those of the c-apatinib group. The C-index values of the nomograms in the D-apatinib group and the c-apatinib group were 0.826 and 0.802, and the area under the curve (AUC) values in the ROC curve were 0.934 and 0.892. After PSM analysis, the survival of patients treated with D-apatinib was better than that of patients treated with c-apatinib (P < 0.05). The C-index values were 0.854 and 0.794 in the D-apatinib group and the c-apatinib group, respectively, and the AUC values were 0.960 and 0.890. The incidence of adverse events was higher in the c-apatinib group. CONCLUSION: DEB-TACE in combination with apatinib showed better treatment effectiveness for unresectable HCC. The nomograms can identify HCC patients who may benefit most from the treatment.