Abstract
Outbreaks of crown-of-thorns starfish Acanthaster planci (COTS), a disruptive coral-eating predator, are responsible for almost half of total coral cover loss on Australia's Great Barrier Reef. As the pressures of climate change continue to intensify the frequency and severity of disturbance events such as cyclones and coral bleaching, efficiently managing COTS outbreaks is essential for reef protection. We aim to understand how the spatial distribution and intensity of crown-of-thorns starfish control - specifically manual culling of COTS by human divers - can impact coral cover on the GBR. We construct a metapopulation model based on a predator-prey model with larval dispersal and removal of crown-of-thorns starfish to simulate and compare spatial control strategies. When outbreaks begin on reefs between Cairns and Cooktown, we found the best strategy is to target those reefs at the source of the COTS outbreak. Increasing the spatial spread of control results in a larger spatial area protected across the GBR, but a lower total coral cover on the GBR. Our findings suggest that carefully targeting future control by considering larval connectivity patterns and spatial control strategies could lead to more efficient crown-of-thorns management. With the increasing pressures of climate change, any efficiency gains in reef management will prove beneficial for the Great Barrier Reef.