Abstract
Climate change is likely to imperil native biodiversity through the increased frequency of extreme events. Here we address the short-term effects of an extreme flooding event on an unplowed prairie reserve, the Faville Prairie Wisconsin State Natural Area. This 25-ha property is a remnant of the formerly extensive Crawfish Prairie that lay on the east bank of the Crawfish River, Jefferson County, Wisconsin USA. The Faville remnant has historically been subject to late winter to spring flooding in its lower portions. In June of 2008, however, an extreme rainfall event caused flooding unprecedented in the 87-year history of streamflow, inundating the entire site. Data were available from 180 permanently marked plots sampled in 1978-79. We assessed the change by resampling these plots in 2010-2015. At the m2 scale, we found significant losses of species richness, a result of most species having fewer occurrences than in the earlier data. There was near extinction of several important prairie species and a relative increase in wetland tolerant species. Lower elevation plots, subject to the encroachment of woody plants and the invasion of Phalaris arundinacea for decades prior to the flood, had the lowest levels of species richness. However, some prairie species survived the flooding with little change, and recent anecdotal observations show that others are rebuilding their populations. Thus, if extreme floods are infrequent, the prairie should be able to recover to its former state. If, however, the hydrological regime shifts toward more frequent, growing-season floods, we predict further decline in those plant species that were the object of the preservation of this remnant. It is critical that fire management continue along with monitoring to track species' recovery or replacement, so that corrective measures can be identified and tested to sustain the native prairie species diversity.