Abstract
BACKGROUND: The risk profile for posterior fossa ependymoma (EP) depends on surgical and molecular status [Group A (PFA) versus Group B (PFB)]. While subtotal tumor resection is known to confer worse prognosis, MRI-based EP risk-profiling is unexplored. We aimed to apply machine learning strategies to link MRI-based biomarkers of high-risk EP and also to distinguish PFA from PFB. METHODS: We extracted 1800 quantitative features from presurgical T2-weighted (T2-MRI) and gadolinium-enhanced T1-weighted (T1-MRI) imaging of 157 EP patients. We implemented nested cross-validation to identify features for risk score calculations and apply a Cox model for survival analysis. We conducted additional feature selection for PFA versus PFB and examined performance across three candidate classifiers. RESULTS: For all EP patients with GTR, we identified four T2-MRI-based features and stratified patients into high- and low-risk groups, with 5-year overall survival rates of 62% and 100%, respectively (P < .0001). Among presumed PFA patients with GTR, four T1-MRI and five T2-MRI features predicted divergence of high- and low-risk groups, with 5-year overall survival rates of 62.7% and 96.7%, respectively (P = .002). T1-MRI-based features showed the best performance distinguishing PFA from PFB with an AUC of 0.86. CONCLUSIONS: We present machine learning strategies to identify MRI phenotypes that distinguish PFA from PFB, as well as high- and low-risk PFA. We also describe quantitative image predictors of aggressive EP tumors that might assist risk-profiling after surgery. Future studies could examine translating radiomics as an adjunct to EP risk assessment when considering therapy strategies or trial candidacy.