Abstract
Rotavirus infection is a common cause of severe diarrheal disease and a major cause of deaths and hospitalizations among young children. Incidence of rotavirus has declined globally with increasing vaccine coverage. However, it remains a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in low-income countries where vaccine access is limited and efficacy is lower. The oral human neonatal vaccine RV3-BB can be safely administered earlier than other vaccines, and recent trials in Indonesia have demonstrated high efficacy. In this study, we use a stochastic individual-based model of rotavirus transmission and disease to estimate the anticipated population-level impact of RV3-BB following delivery according to either an infant (2, 4, 6 months) and neonatal (0, 2, 4 months) schedule. Using our model, which incorporated an age- and household-structured population and estimates of vaccine efficacy derived from trial data, we found both delivery schedules to be effective at reducing infection and disease. We estimated 95-96% reductions in infection and disease in children under 12 months of age when vaccine coverage is 85%. We also estimate high levels of indirect protection from vaccination, including 78% reductions in infection in adults over 17 years of age. Even for lower vaccine coverage of 55%, we estimate reductions of 84% in infection and disease in children under 12 months of age. While open questions remain about the drivers of observed lower efficacy in low-income settings, our model suggests RV3-BB could be effective at reducing infection and preventing disease in young infants at the population level.