Abstract
BACKGROUND: The role of uric acid (UA) in the progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD) remains controversial due to the unavoidable cause and result relationship. This study was aimed to clarify the independent impact of UA on the subsequent risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) by a propensity score analysis. METHODS: A retrospective CKD cohort was used (n = 803). Baseline 23 covariates were subjected to a multivariate binary logistic regression with the targeted time-averaged UA of 6.0, 6.5 or 7.0 mg/dL. The participants trimmed 2.5 percentile from the extreme ends of the cohort underwent propensity score analyses consisting of matching, stratification on quintile and covariate adjustment. Covariate balances after 1:1 matching without replacement were tested for by paired analysis and standardized differences. A stratified Cox regression and a Cox regression adjusted for logit of propensity scores were examined. RESULTS: After propensity score matching, the higher UA showed elevated hazard ratios (HRs) by Kaplan-Meier analysis (≥ 6.0 mg/dL, HR 4.53, 95%CI 1.79-11.43; ≥ 6.5 mg/dL, HR 3.39, 95%CI 1.55-7.42; ≥ 7.0 mg/dL, HR 2.19, 95%CI 1.28-3.75). The number needed to treat was 8 to 9 over 5 years. A stratified Cox regression likewise showed significant crude HRs (≥ 6.0 mg/dL, HR 3.63, 95%CI 1.25-10.58; ≥ 6.5 mg/dL, HR 3.46, 95%CI 1.56-7.68; ≥ 7.0 mg/dL, HR 2.05, 95%CI 1.21-3.48). Adjusted HR lost its significance at 6.0 mg/dL. The adjustment for the logit of the propensity scores showed the similar results but with worse model fittings than the stratification method. Upon further adjustment for other covariates the significance was attained at 6.5 mg/dL. CONCLUSIONS: Three different methods of the propensity score analysis showed consistent results that the higher UA accelerates the progression to the subsequent ESRD. A stratified Cox regression outperforms other methods in generalizability and adjusting for residual bias. Serum UA should be targeted less than 6.5 mg/dL.