Abstract
BACKGROUND: Inclusion of multiple immunogens to target a single organism is a strategy being pursued for many experimental vaccines, especially where it is difficult to generate a strongly protective response from a single immunogen. Although there are many human vaccines that contain multiple defined immunogens, in almost every case each component targets a different pathogen. As a consequence, there is little practical experience for deciding where the increased complexity of vaccines with multiple defined immunogens vaccines targeting single pathogens will be justifiable. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A mathematical model, with immunogenicity parameters derived from a database of human responses to established vaccines, was used to predict the increase in the efficacy and the proportion of the population protected resulting from addition of further immunogens. The gains depended on the relative protection and the range of responses in the population to each immunogen and also to the correlation of the responses between immunogens. In most scenarios modeled, the gain in overall efficacy obtained by adding more immunogens was comparable to gains obtained from a single immunogen through the use of better formulations or adjuvants. Multi-component single target vaccines were more effective at decreasing the proportion of poor responders than increasing the overall efficacy of the vaccine in a population. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Inclusion of limited number of antigens in a vaccine aimed at targeting a single organism will increase efficacy, but the gains are relatively modest and for a practical vaccine there are constraints that are likely to limit multi-component single target vaccines to a small number of key antigens. The model predicts that this type of vaccine will be most useful where the critical issue is the reduction in proportion of poor responders.