Abstract
The spatial spillover of urban innovation has increasingly become an important factor affecting urban total factor productivity (TFP) growth. Based on the panel data of 108 cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2004 to 2020, this paper illustrates the spatial-temporal evolution trend of urban innovation and manufacturing total factor productivity and uses the spatial Dubin model to study the direct and indirect effects of urban innovation on manufacturing total factor productivity. The main conclusions are as follows:(1)Spatial correlation and heterogeneity between urban innovation and manufacturing total factor productivity prove to be significant in the Yangtze River Economic Belt;(2)Urban innovation has a significant positive impact on manufacturing total factor productivity and has a positive spillover effect on surrounding cities; (3)The effect of urban innovation on manufacturing total factor productivity varies with time and region;(4) Mechanism analysis shows that talent agglomeration significantly promotes the positive impact of urban innovation on manufacturing total factor productivity, while the spillover effect is insignificant.