Abstract
BACKGROUND: Lower-grade glioma (LGG) exhibits significant heterogeneity in clinical outcomes, and current prognostic markers have limited predictive value. Despite the growing recognition of histone modifications in tumor progression, their role in LGG remains poorly understood. This study aimed to develop a histone modification-based risk signature and investigate its relationship with drug sensitivity to guide personalized treatment strategies. METHODS: We performed single-cell RNA sequencing analysis on LGG samples (n = 4) to characterize histone modification patterns. Through integrative analysis of TCGA-LGG (n = 513) and CGGA datasets (n = 693 and n = 325), we constructed a histone modification-related risk signature (HMRS) using machine learning approaches. The model's performance was validated in multiple independent cohorts. We further conducted comprehensive analyses of molecular mechanisms, immune microenvironment, and drug sensitivity associated with the risk stratification. RESULTS: We identified distinct histone modification patterns across five major cell populations in LGG and developed a robust 20-gene HMRS from 129 candidate genes that effectively stratified patients into high- and low-risk groups with significantly different survival outcomes (training set: AUC = 0.77, 0.73, and 0.71 for 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival; P < 0.001). Integration of HMRS with clinical features further improved prognostic accuracy (C-index >0.70). High-risk tumors showed activation of TGF-β and IL6-JAK-STAT3 signaling pathways, and distinct mutation profiles including TP53 (63% vs 28%), IDH1 (68% vs 85%), and ATRX (46% vs 20%) mutations. The high-risk group demonstrated significantly elevated immune and stromal scores (P < 0.001), with distinct patterns of immune cell infiltration, particularly in memory CD4(+) T cells (P < 0.001) and CD8(+) T cells (P = 0.001). Drug sensitivity analysis revealed significant differential responses to six therapeutic agents including Temozolomide and targeted drugs (P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Our study establishes a novel histone modification-based prognostic model that not only accurately predicts LGG patient outcomes but also reveals potential therapeutic targets. The identified associations between risk stratification and drug sensitivity provide valuable insights for personalized treatment strategies. This integrated approach offers a promising framework for improving LGG patient care through molecular-based risk assessment and treatment selection.