Abstract
Indications for human papillomavirus vaccination programs are expanding to boys. However, the rationale behind their inclusion is often not clear. Using a Bayesian synthesis framework and assuming equal vaccine coverage in both sexes, we assessed how the incremental number of cancer cases prevented and life-years gained from boys' vaccination are distributed between women, heterosexual men, and men who have sex with men (MSM). Below 60% coverage, at least 50% of the gains from boys' vaccination was attributable to cervical cancer prevention, whereas at 80% coverage, 50% of the gains was attributable to women, 15% to heterosexual men, and 35% to MSM. Above 90% coverage, 85-100% of the gains from boys' vaccination was attributable to anal and oropharyngeal cancer prevention, mainly in MSM. Sex-neutral vaccination can be advocated on grounds of bolstering herd protection to women and directly protecting men, particularly MSM, with the clinical significance of either argument determined by the coverage.