Abstract
HIV-1-infected persons have increased risk of serious non-AIDS events (SNAEs) despite suppressive antiretroviral therapy. Increased circulating levels of soluble CD14 (sCD14), soluble CD163 (sCD163), and interleukin-6 (IL-6) at a single time point have been associated with SNAEs. However, whether changes in these biomarker levels predict SNAEs in HIV-1-infected persons is unknown. We hypothesized that greater decreases in inflammatory biomarkers would be associated with fewer SNAEs. We identified 39 patients with SNAEs, including major cardiovascular events, end stage renal disease, decompensated cirrhosis, non-AIDS-defining malignancies, and death of unknown cause, and age- and sex-matched HIV-1-infected controls. sCD14, sCD163, and IL-6 were measured at study enrollment (T1) and proximal to the event (T2) or equivalent duration in matched controls. Over ∼34 months, unchanged rather than decreasing levels of sCD14 and IL-6 predicted SNAEs. Older age and current illicit substance abuse, but not HCV coinfection, were associated with SNAEs. In a multivariate analysis, older age, illicit substance use, and unchanged IL-6 levels remained significantly associated with SNAEs. Thus, the trajectories of sCD14 and IL-6 levels predict SNAEs. Interventions to decrease illicit substance use may decrease the risk of SNAEs in HIV-1-infected persons.