Abstract
BACKGROUND: Strong evidence supports that dietary modifications may decrease incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Numerous diabetes risk models/scores have been developed, but most do not rely specifically on dietary variables or do not fully capture the overall dietary pattern. We prospectively assessed the association of a dietary-based diabetes-risk score (DDS), which integrates optimal food patterns, with the risk of developing T2DM in the SUN ("Seguimiento Universidad de Navarra") longitudinal study. METHODS: We assessed 17,292 participants initially free of diabetes, followed-up for a mean of 9.2 years. A validated 136-item FFQ was administered at baseline. Taking into account previous literature, the DDS positively weighted vegetables, fruit, whole cereals, nuts, coffee, low-fat dairy, fiber, PUFA, and alcohol in moderate amounts; while it negatively weighted red meat, processed meats and sugar-sweetened beverages. Energy-adjusted quintiles of each item (with exception of moderate alcohol consumption that received either 0 or 5 points) were used to build the DDS (maximum: 60 points). Incident T2DM was confirmed through additional detailed questionnaires and review of medical records of participants. We used Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for socio-demographic and anthropometric parameters, health-related habits, and clinical variables to estimate hazard ratios (HR) of T2DM. RESULTS: We observed 143 T2DM confirmed cases during follow-up. Better baseline conformity with the DDS was associated with lower incidence of T2DM (multivariable-adjusted HR for intermediate (25-39 points) vs. low (11-24) category 0.43 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.21, 0.89]; and for high (40-60) vs. low category 0.32 [95% CI: 0.14, 0.69]; p for linear trend: 0.019). CONCLUSIONS: The DDS, a simple score exclusively based on dietary components, showed a strong inverse association with incident T2DM. This score may be applicable in clinical practice to improve dietary habits of subjects at high risk of T2DM and also as an educational tool for laypeople to help them in self-assessing their future risk for developing diabetes.