Abstract
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: This study examined young adults' tobacco use transitions based on their past 30-day use states, and identified factors associated with their transitions. METHODS: Participants (N = 12377) were young adults aged 18-29 years at Wave 1 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) study. Self-reported tobacco use states were categorized by the number of past-month use days (0, 1-4, 5-8, 9-12, 13-30 days) for cigarettes, electronic cigarettes [e-cigarettes], traditional cigars, filtered cigars, cigarillos, smokeless tobacco (SLT), and hookah. Multistate Markov models examined transitions between use states across Waves 1-5 of unweighted PATH data and multinomial logistic regressions examined predictors of transitions. RESULTS: Most young adults remained nonusers across adjacent waves for all products (88%-99%). Collapsed across waves, transitioning from use at any level to nonuse (average 46%-67%) was more common than transitioning from nonuse to use at any level (average 4%-10%). Several factors that predicted riskier patterns of use (i.e., transitioning to use and/or remaining a user across adjacent waves) were similar across most products: male, Black, Hispanic, lower education levels, and lower harm perceptions. In contrast, other factors predicted riskier patterns for only select products (e.g., e-cigarette and SLT use among Whites). DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: Few sampled young adults escalated their tobacco use over time, and escalations for many products were predicted by similar factors. SCIENTIFIC SIGNIFICANCE: Prevention and regulatory efforts targeted towards adolescents should continue, but also be expanded into young adulthood. These same efforts should consider both shared and unique factors that influence use transitions.