Abstract
OBJECTIVE: This study aims to establish the predictive model of carotid plaque formation and carotid plaque location by retrospectively analyzing the clinical data of subjects with carotid plaque formation and normal people, and to provide technical support for screening patients with carotid plaque. METHODS: There were 4300 subjects in the ultrasound department of Maanshan People's Hospital collected from December 2013 to December 2018. We used demographic and biochemical data from 3700 subjects to establish predictive models for carotid plaque and its location. The leave-one-out cross-validated classification, 600 external data validation, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were used to verify the accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and application value of the model. RESULTS: There were significant difference of age (F = - 34.049, p < 0.01), hypertension (χ(2) = 191.067, p < 0.01), smoking (χ(2) = 4.762, p < 0.05) and alcohol (χ(2) = 8.306, p < 0.01), Body mass index (F = 15.322, p < 0.01), High-density lipoprotein (HDL) (F = 13.840, p < 0.01), Lipoprotein a (Lp a) (F = 52.074, p < 0.01), Blood Urea Nitrogen (F = 2.679, p < 0.01) among five groups. Prediction models were built: carotid plaque prediction model (Model CP); Prediction model of left carotid plaque only (Model CP Left); Prediction model of right carotid plaque only (Model CP Right). Prediction model of bilateral carotid plaque (Model CP Both). Model CP (Wilks' lambda = 0.597, p < 0.001, accuracy = 78.50%, sensitivity = 78.07%, specificity = 79.07%, AUC = 0.917). Model CP Left (Wilks' lambda = 0.605, p < 0.001, accuracy = 79.00%, sensitivity = 86.17%, specificity = 72.70%, AUC = 0.880). Model CP Right (Wilks' lambda = 0.555, p < 0.001, accuracy = 83.00%, sensitivity = 81.82%, specificity = 84.44%, AUC = 0.880). Model CP Both (Wilks' lambda = 0.651, p < 0.001, accuracy = 82.30%, sensitivity = 89.50%, specificity = 72.70%, AUC = 0.880). CONCLUSION: Demographic characteristics and blood biochemical indexes were used to establish the carotid plaque and its location discriminant models based on Fisher discriminant analysis (FDA), which has high application value in community screening.