Abstract
BACKGROUND: Estimates of excess risk of valvular heart disease among prior users of fenfluramine and dexfenfluramine have varied widely. Two major forms of bias appear to contribute to this variability and also result in a systematic under-estimation of risk. The first, a form of nondifferential misclassification, is the result of including background, prevalent cases among both exposed and unexposed persons in calculations of risk. The second bias results from not considering the relatively short duration of exposure to drugs. METHODS: We examined data from all available echocardiographic studies reporting the prevalence of aortic regurgitation (AR) and mitral regurgitation (MR) among persons exposed to fenfluramine or dexfenfluramine and a suitable control group. We also included one study in which previously existing AR or MR had been excluded. We corrected for background prevalent cases, estimated incidence rates in unexposed persons, and performed a person-years analysis of apparent incidence rates based on exposure time to provide an unbiased estimate of relative risk. RESULTS: Appearance of new AR was strongly related to duration of exposure (R2 = 0.75, p < 0.0001). The summary relative risk for mild or greater AR was 19.6 (95% CI 16.3-23.5, p < 0.00001); for moderate or greater MR it was 5.9 (95% CI 4.0-8.6, p < 0.00001). CONCLUSION: These findings provide strong support for the view that fenfluramine and dexfenfluramine are potent causal factors in the development of both aortic and mitral valvular heart disease.