Abstract
BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is known to have obesity as a risk factor. Body mass index cannot distinguish between lean mass and fat mass. We aimed to examine the association between predicted fat mass, predicted lean mass, predicted percent fat and risk of T2DM in Japanese adults. We also explored whether these three new parameters could predict T2DM better than other obesity markers. METHODS: This present study is a secondary data analysis. The study enrolled 20,944 Japanese individuals who participated in the NAGALA medical assessment program between 2004 and 2015. 15,453 participants who are eligible and have complete information were included to our analysis. Through the use of Kaplan-Meier curve, restricted cubic spline and univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis, the relationship between predicted fat mass, predicted lean mass, predicted percent fat and T2DM risk was examined. The area under the curve method was used to assess the differences between these markers of obesity. RESULTS: A total of 373 cases of T2DM occurred over a median time of 5.4 years. In the male group, we found a U-shaped connection between predicted fat mass, predicted lean mass, and T2DM onset (p value, non-linearity < 0.05). A linear relationship was found between predicted percent fat and T2DM onset. The linear relationship was also found in the female group for predicted fat mass, and predicted percent fat. And for women, predicted lean mass was not an independent predictor. The area under the curve (AUC) for predicted fat mass, predicted lean mass, predicted percent fat in men was 0.673 (95%CI: 0.639 ~ 0.707), 0.598 (95%CI: 0.561 ~ 0.635), 0.715 (95%CI: 0.684 ~ 0.745), respectively. In males, WHtR was the strongest predictor (AUC 0.7151, 95%CI: 0.684 ~ 0.746), followed by predicted percent fat (AUC 0.7150, 95%CI: 0.684 ~ 0.745). In the females, WHtR was also the strongest predictor (AUC 0.758, 95%CI: 0.703 ~ 0.813), followed by body mass index (AUC 0.757, 95%CI: 0.704 ~ 0.811) and predicted percent fat (AUC 0.742, 95%CI: 0.687 ~ 0.798). CONCLUSION: Predicted fat mass, predicted lean mass, predicted percent fat were strongly connected with an increased risk for developing T2DM in Japanese, particularly in males. WHtR and predicted percent fat had a slightly better discrimination than other common obesity indicators in males. In the females, predicted fat mass and predicted percent fat were associated with T2DM risk, WHtR and body mass index had the slightly higher predictive power.