Abstract
The problem of remaining useful life estimation (RULE) of hollow worn railway vehicle wheels in terms of remaining mileage via wheel tread depth estimation using on-board vibration signals from a single accelerometer on the bogie frame is presently investigated. This is achieved based on the introduction of a statistical time series method that employs: (i) advanced data-driven stochastic Functionally Pooled models for the modeling of the vehicle dynamics under different wheel tread depths in a range of interest until a critical limit, as well as tread depth estimation through a proper optimization procedure, and (ii) a wheel tread depth evolution function with respect to the vehicle running mileage that interconnects the estimated hollow wear with the remaining useful mileage. The method's RULE performance is investigated via hundreds of Simpack-based Monte Carlo simulations with an Attiko Metro S.A. vehicle and many hollow worn wheels scenarios which are not used for the method's training. The obtained results indicate the accurate estimation of the wheels tread depth with a mean absolute error of ∼0.07 mm that leads to a corresponding small error of ∼3% with respect to the wheels remaining useful mileage. In addition, the comparison with a recently introduced Multiple Model (MM)-based multi-health state classification method for RULE, demonstrates the better performance of the postulated method that achieves 81.17% True Positive Rate (TPR) which is significantly higher than the 45.44% of the MM method.