Abstract
SUMMARY Understanding the factors driving pathogen emergence and re-emergence is a major challenge, particularly in agriculture, where the use of resistant plant cultivars imposes strong selective pressures on plant pathogen populations and leads frequently to 'resistance breakdown'. Presently, durable resistances are only identified after a long period of large-scale cultivation of resistant cultivars. We propose a new predictor of the durability of plant resistance. Because resistance breakdown involves modifications in the avirulence factors of pathogens, we tested for correlations between the evolutionary constraints acting on avirulence factors or their diversity and the durability of the corresponding resistance genes in the case of plant-virus interactions. An analysis performed on 20 virus species-resistance gene combinations revealed that the selective constraints applied on amino acid substitutions in virus avirulence factors correlate with the observed durability of the corresponding resistance genes. On the basis of this result, a model predicting the potential durability of resistance genes as a function of the selective constraints applied on the corresponding avirulence factors is proposed to help breeders to select the most durable resistance genes.