Abstract
With the steadily growing of global transportation market, the traffic load has increased dramatically over the past decades, which may develop into a risk source for existing bridges. The simultaneous presence of heavy trucks that are random in nature governs the serviceability limit for large bridges. This study investigated probabilistic traffic load effects on large bridges under actual heavy traffic load. Initially, critical stochastic traffic loading scenarios were simulated based on millions of traffic monitoring data in a highway bridge in China. A methodology of extrapolating maximum traffic load effects was presented based on the level-crossing theory. The effectiveness of the proposed method was demonstrated by probabilistic deflection investigation of a suspension bridge. Influence of traffic density variation and overloading control on the maximum deflection was investigated as recommendations for designers and managers. The numerical results show that the congested traffic mostly governs the critical traffic load effects on large bridges. Traffic growth results in higher maximum deformations and probabilities of failure of the bridge in its lifetime. Since the critical loading scenario contains multi-types of overloaded trucks, an effective overloading control measure has a remarkable influence on the lifetime maximum deflection. The stochastic traffic model and corresponding computational framework is expected to be developed to more types of bridges.