Abstract
OBJECTIVES: Predicting secondary loss of response (SLR) to infliximab (IFX) is paramount for tailoring personalized management regimens. Concurrent pancreatic manifestations in patients with Crohn's disease (CD) may correlate with SLR to anti-tumor necrosis factor treatment. This work aimed to evaluate the potential of pancreatic radiomics to predict SLR to IFX in biologic-naive individuals with CD. METHODS: Three models were developed by logistic regression analyses to identify high-risk subgroup prone to SLR. The area under the curve (AUC), calibration curve, decision curve analysis (DCA), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were applied for the verification of model performance. A quantitative nomogram was proposed based on the optimal prediction model, and its reliability was substantiated by 10-fold cross-validation. RESULTS: In total, 184 CD patients were enrolled in the period January 2016 to February 2022. The clinical model incorporated age of onset, disease duration, disease location, and disease behavior, whereas the radiomics model consisted of five texture features. These clinical parameters and the radiomics score calculated by selected texture features were applied to build the combined model. Compared to other two models, combined model achieved favorable, significantly improved discrimination power (AUC(combined vs clinical) 0.851 vs 0.694, p = 0.02; AUC(combined vs radiomics) 0.851 vs 0.740, p = 0.04) and superior clinical usefulness, which was further converted into reliable nomogram with an accuracy of 0.860 and AUC of 0.872. CONCLUSIONS: The first proposed pancreatic-related nomogram represents a credible, noninvasive predictive instrument to assist clinicians in accurately identifying SLR and non-SLR in CD patients. CRITICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT: This study first built a visual nomogram incorporating pancreatic texture features and clinical factors, which could facilitate clinicians to make personalized treatment decisions and optimize cost-effectiveness ratio for patients with CD. KEY POINTS: • The first proposed pancreatic-related model predicts secondary loss of response for infliximab in Crohn's disease. • The model achieved satisfactory predictive accuracy, calibration ability, and clinical value. • The model-based nomogram has the potential to identify long-term failure in advance and tailor personalized management regimens.