Abstract
OBJECTIVES: Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) is a reliable, safe, instant, and inexpensive score for prognosticating patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) due to its ability to reflect ongoing changes of the systemic inflammatory response syndrome associated with AP. Our study sought to determine an optimal MEWS value in predicting severity in AP and determine its accuracy in doing so. METHODS: Patients diagnosed with AP and admitted to a single institution were analyzed to determine the value of MEWS in identifying severe AP (SAP). The highest MEWS (hMEWS) score for the day and the mean of all the scores of a given day (mMEWS) were determined for each day. Sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value (NPV), and positive predictive values (PPV) were calculated for the optimal MEWS values obtained. RESULTS: Two hundred patients were included in the study. The data suggested that an hMEWS value > 2 on day one is most accurate in predicting SAP, with a specificity of 90.8% and PPV of 83.3%. An mMEWS of > 1.2 on day two was the most accurate in predicting SAP, with a sensitivity of 81.2%, specificity of 76.6%, PPV of 69.8%, and NPV of 85.9%. These were found to be more accurate than previous studies. CONCLUSIONS: MEWS provides a novel, easy, instant, repeatable, and reliable prognostic score that is comparable, if not superior, to existing scoring systems. However, its true value may lie in its use in resource-limited settings such as primary health care centers.