Abstract
Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common arrhythmia and significantly increases stroke risk. This risk is effectively managed by oral anticoagulation. Recent studies using national registry data indicate increased use of anticoagulation resulting from changes in guidelines and the availability of newer drugs. The aim of this study is to develop and validate an open source risk scoring pipeline for free-text electronic health record data using natural language processing. AF patients discharged from 1st January 2011 to 1st October 2017 were identified from discharge summaries (N = 10,030, 64.6% male, average age 75.3 ± 12.3 years). A natural language processing pipeline was developed to identify risk factors in clinical text and calculate risk for ischaemic stroke (CHA2DS2-VASc) and bleeding (HAS-BLED). Scores were validated vs two independent experts for 40 patients. Automatic risk scores were in strong agreement with the two independent experts for CHA2DS2-VASc (average kappa 0.78 vs experts, compared to 0.85 between experts). Agreement was lower for HAS-BLED (average kappa 0.54 vs experts, compared to 0.74 between experts). In high-risk patients (CHA2DS2-VASc ≥2) OAC use has increased significantly over the last 7 years, driven by the availability of DOACs and the transitioning of patients from AP medication alone to OAC. Factors independently associated with OAC use included components of the CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores as well as discharging specialty and frailty. OAC use was highest in patients discharged under cardiology (69%). Electronic health record text can be used for automatic calculation of clinical risk scores at scale. Open source tools are available today for this task but require further validation. Analysis of routinely collected EHR data can replicate findings from large-scale curated registries.