Abstract
BACKGROUND: Bipolar Disorder (BD) cannot be reliably distinguished from Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) until the first manic or hypomanic episode. Consequently, many patients with BD are treated with antidepressants without mood stabilizers, a strategy that is often ineffective and carries a risk of inducing a manic episode. We previously reported reduced cortical thickness in right precuneus, right caudal middle-frontal cortex and left inferior parietal cortex in BD compared with MDD. METHODS: This study extends our previous work by performing individual level classification of BD or MDD in an expanded, currently unmedicated, cohort using gray matter volume (GMV) based on Magnetic Resonance Imaging and a Support Vector Machine. All patients were in a Major Depressive Episode and a leave-two-out analysis was performed. RESULTS: Nineteen out of 26 BD subjects and 20 out of 26 MDD subjects were correctly identified, for a combined accuracy of 75%. The three brain regions contributing to the classification were higher GMV in bilateral supramarginal gyrus and occipital cortex indicating MDD, and higher GMV in right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex indicating BD. LIMITATIONS: This analysis included scans performed with two different headcoils and scan sequences, which limited the interpretability of results in an independent cohort analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Our results add to previously published data which suggest that regional gray matter volume should be investigated further as a clinical diagnostic tool to predict BD before the appearance of a manic or hypomanic episode.