Abstract
Land use changes profoundly affect hydrological processes and water quality at various scales, necessitating a comprehensive understanding of sustainable water resource management. This paper investigates the implications of land use alterations in the Gap-Cheon watershed, analyzing data from 2012 and 2022 and predicting changes up to 2052 using the Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model. The study employs the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) model to assess water quantity and quality dynamics. Seven land use classes were identified, and their evolution was examined, revealing significant shifts in urban, agricultural, grassland, wetland, and forested areas. The model performance across observed data was evaluated using coefficient of determination (R(2)), percent bias (PBAIS), and mean absolute error (MAE). Results show the dynamic nature of land use changes, highlighting shifts in urbanization, agriculture, and forested areas. Notably, the study explores the consequences of these changes on water quantity and quality, scrutinizing surface runoff, evapotranspiration, stream flow, and nutrient loads. Urban green spaces emerge as key mitigators, regulating runoff and enhancing water absorption. Forests (vegetation) also play a crucial role in maintaining water balance, while wetlands act as natural filters for flood mitigation and water quality improvement. The findings underscore the importance of informed land use planning, recognizing urban green spaces, forests, and wetlands as integral components for sustainable watershed management. As society navigates environmental challenges, this research contributes to a deeper understanding of the complex interactions between human activities and the natural environment emphasizing the need for nature-based solutions in land use planning for resilient and balanced ecosystems.