Abstract
BACKGROUND: Neurofilament light chain (NfL) is an attractive biomarker of disease activity and progression in MS, but there is a lack in long-term prognostic data. OBJECTIVE: To test the long-term clinical and radiological prognostic value of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF)-NfL among newly diagnosed patients with MS. METHODS: Newly diagnosed MS patients where followed prospectively with baseline CSF-NfL and repeated MRI and clinical assessments for up to 10 years. Associations between baseline CSF-NfL and longitudinal MRI and clinical assessments were found by Generalized Estimating Equations analysis. RESULTS: Forty-two participants were included. CSF-NfL at baseline was significantly associated with the rate of atrophy in globus pallidus (p = 0.009) and hippocampus (p = 0.001) as evaluated by MRI. Baseline volumes of thalamus (β -0.33; 95% CI -0.57 to -0.10, p = 0.006), T1 (β 0.28; 95% CI 0.11 to 0.44, p = 0.001) and T2 (β 0.16; 95% CI 0.04 to 0.27, p = 0.008) lesions and baseline levels of CSF-NfL (β 0.9; 95% CI 0.3 to 1.5, p = 0.002) significantly predicted EDSS worsening over 10 years. Baseline CSF-NfL gave a comparable prediction to the best MRI volumetric predictors. CONCLUSION: CSF-NfL predicted the clinical and radiological course of newly diagnosed patients with MS over a 10-year period, underlining its prognostic role.