Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Patients undergoing cardiac surgery are subject to infectious complications that adversely affect outcomes. Rapid identification is essential for adequate treatment. Procalcitonin (PCT) is a noninvasive blood test that could serve this purpose, however its validity in the cardiac surgery population is still debated. We therefore performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate the accuracy of PCT for the diagnosis of postoperative bacterial infection after cardiac surgery. METHODS: We included studies on adult cardiac surgery patients, providing estimates of test accuracy. Search was performed on PubMed, EmBase and WebOfScience on April 12th, 2023 and rerun on September 15th, 2023, limited to the last 10 years. Study quality was assessed with the QUADAS-2 tool. The pooled measures of performance and diagnostic accuracy, and corresponding 95% Confidence Intervals (CI), were calculated using a bivariate regression model. Due to the variation in reported thresholds, we used a multiple-thresholds within a study random effects model for meta-analysis (diagmeta R-package). RESULTS: Eleven studies were included in the systematic review, and 10 (2984 patients) in the meta-analysis. All studies were single-center with observational design, five of which with retrospective data collection. Quality assessment highlighted various issues, mainly concerning lack of prespecified thresholds for the index test in all studies. Results of bivariate model analysis using multiple thresholds within a study identified the optimal threshold at 3 ng/mL, with a mean sensitivity of 0.67 (0.47-0.82), mean specificity of 0.73 (95% CI 0.65-0.79), and AUC of 0.75 (IC95% 0.29-0.95). Given its importance for practice, we also evaluated PCT's predictive capability. We found that positive predictive value is at most close to 50%, also with a high prevalence (30%), and the negative predictive value was always > 90% when prevalence was < 20%. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that PCT may be used to help rule out infection after cardiac surgery. The optimal threshold of 3 ng/mL identified in this work should be confirmed with large, well-designed randomized trials that evaluate the test's impact on health outcomes and on the use of antibiotic therapy. PROSPERO Registration number CRD42023415773. Registered 22 April 2023.