Abstract
This study addresses the growing need for intelligent monitoring in aquaponic systems by developing a predictive system based on artificial intelligence and environmental sensing. The goal is to improve fish welfare through the early detection of adverse water conditions. The system integrates low-cost digital sensors to continuously measure key physicochemical variables-pH, dissolved oxygen, and temperature-using these as inputs for real-time classification of fish health status. Four supervised machine learning models were evaluated: linear discriminant analysis (LDA), support vector machines (SVMs), neural networks (NNs), and random forest (RF). A dataset of 1823 instances was collected over eight months from a red tilapia aquaponic setup. The random forest model yielded the highest classification accuracy (99%), followed by NN (98%) and SVM (97%). LDA achieved 82% accuracy. Performance was validated using 5-fold cross-validation and label permutation tests to confirm model robustness. These results demonstrate that sensor-based predictive models can reliably detect early signs of fish stress or mortality, supporting the implementation of intelligent environmental monitoring and automation strategies in sustainable aquaponic production.