Abstract
In a mass casualty incident, the factors that determine the survival rate of injured patients are diverse, but one of the key factors is the time for triage. Additionally, the main factor that determines the time of triage is the number of medical personnel. However, when relying on a small number of medical personnel, the ability to increase survivability is limited. Therefore, developing a classification model for survival prediction that can quickly and precisely triage via wearable devices without medical personnel is important. In this study, we designed a consciousness index to substitute the factor by manpower and improved the classification accuracy by applying a machine learning algorithm. First, logistic regression analysis using vital signs and a consciousness index capable of remote monitoring through wearable devices confirmed the high efficiency of the consciousness index. We then developed a classification model with high accuracy which corresponds to existing injury severity scoring systems through the machine learning algorithms. We extracted 460,865 cases which met our criteria for developing the survival prediction from the national sample project in the national trauma databank which contains 408,316 cases of blunt injury and 52,549 cases of penetrating injury. Among the dataset, 17,918 (3.9%) cases died while the other survived. The AUCs with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the different models with the proposed simplified consciousness score as follows: RTS (as baseline), 0.78 (95% CI = 0.775 to 0.785); logistic regression, 0.87 (95% CI = 0.862 to 0.870); random forest, 0.87 (95% CI = 0.862 to 0.872); deep neural network, 0.89 (95% CI = 0.882 to 0.890). As a result, we confirmed the possibility of remote triage using a wearable device. It is expected that the time required for triage can be effectively reduced by using the developed classification model of survival prediction.