Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the well-being of millions of people around the globe. The evidence has shown that during the COVID-19 pandemic, the mental health of the population was affected, which means that there is an extra demand to implement different actions to mitigate and treat mental health disorders result of the pandemic. According to the literature it was expected that the prevalence of mental health disorders, such as anxiety and depression increased by 25 per cent worldwide, and Colombia was not the exception. However, there is not clear evidence on how much this increase might be. This study aims to estimate the prevalence of anxiety and depression for female and male adolescents and adults in Colombia before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. It estimated the potential increase of the prevalence in each group as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. We used the Individual Registry of Health Services Delivery data from 2015-2021 to estimate the observed prevalence of anxiety and depression in Colombia for female and male adults. In addition, using the National Mental Health Survey 2015, we simulated the prevalence of anxiety and depression for adolescents (12 to 17 years) and adults (18 or older) in 2015 and using a static Monte Carlo simulation process we estimated the expected prevalence of depression and anxiety for each group from 2016 to 2021. The results of the analysis using revealed an important increase in the observed prevalence of depression and anxiety for adults and adolescents and men and women between 2015 and February 2020. When we simulated different scenarios using as a base line the National Mental Health Survey and estimated the prevalence of depression and anxiety for female and male adults and adolescents, we found that the prevalence of depression and anxiety has had an important increase in the last five years for all groups and had an important increase during 2020. This increase was greater for women compared to men, and adolescents than adults. Our results show the number of people who need potential attention from the health system in Colombia and highlight the importance to think about how to avoid and detect potential cases of anxiety and depression especially in female adolescents.