Abstract
BACKGROUND: Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is a pre-clinical stage of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Understanding the transition probabilities across the disease continuum of AD, ranging from MCI to AD to Mortality is crucial for the economic modeling of AD and effective planning of future interventions and healthcare resource allocation decisions. This study uses the Multi-state Markov model to quantify the transition probabilities along the disease progression and specifically investigates medications as modifiable risk factors of AD associated with accelerated or decelerated transition times from MCI to AD, MCI to mortality, and AD to mortality. METHODS: Individuals with MCI were identified from the National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center between September 2005 and May 2021. A three-state Markov model was postulated to model the disease progression among three states: MCI, AD, and mortality with adjustment for demographics, genetic characteristics, comorbidities and medications. Transition probabilities, the total length of stay in each state, and the hazard ratios of the use of medications for diabetes, hypertension, and hypercholesterolemia (the known modifiable risk factors of AD) were evaluated for these transitions. RESULTS: 3,324 individuals with MCI were identified. The probability of developing AD after one year since the initial diagnosis of MCI is 14.9%. After approximately 6 years from the initial diagnosis of MCI, the probability of transitioning to AD increases to nearly 41.7% before experiencing a subsequent decline. The expected total lengths of stay were 5.38 (95% CI: 0.002-6.03) years at MCI state and 7.61 (95%CI: 0.002-8.88) years at AD state. Patients with active use of lipid-lowering agents were associated with significantly lower hazards of transitioning from MCI to AD (HR: 0.83, 95%CI:0.71-0.96), MCI to mortality (HR: 0.51, 95%CI:0.34-0.77), and AD to mortality (HR: 0.81, 95%CI:0.66-0.99). CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest that lipid-lowering agents may confer a protective effect, delaying the onset of AD. Additionally, lipid-lowering agents indicate a favorable association with a longer survival time.