Abstract
AIMS: Neurogenic bladder (NB) is a prevalent and debilitating consequence of spinal cord injury (SCI). Indeed, the accurate prognostication of early bladder outcomes is crucial for patient counseling, rehabilitation goal setting, and personalized intervention planning. METHODS: A retrospective exploratory analysis was conducted on a cohort of consecutive SCI patients admitted to a rehabilitation facility in China from May 2016 to December 2022. Demographic, clinical, and electrophysiological data were collected within 40 days post-SCI, with bladder outcomes assessed at 3 months following SCI onset. RESULTS: The present study enrolled 202 SCI patients with a mean age of 40.3 ± 12.3 years. At 3 months post-SCI, 79 participants exhibited complete bladder emptying. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and multivariate logistic regression analyses identified the H-reflex of the soleus muscle, the American Spinal Injury Association Lower Extremity Motor Score (ASIA-LEMS), and the time from lesion to rehabilitation facility (TLRF) as significant independent predictors for bladder emptying. A scoring system named HALT was developed, yielding a strong discriminatory performance with an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (aROC) of 0.878 (95% CI: 0.823-0.933). A simplified model utilizing only the H-reflex exhibited excellent discriminatory ability with an aROC of 0.824 (95% CI: 0.766-0.881). Both models demonstrated good calibration via the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and favorable clinical net benefits through decision curve analysis (DCA). In comparison to ASIA-LEMS, both the HALT score and H-reflex showed superior predictive accuracy for bladder outcome. Notably, in individuals with incomplete injuries, the HALT score (aROC = 0.973, 95% CI: 0.940-1.000) and the H-reflex (aROC = 0.888, 95% CI: 0.807-0.970) displayed enhanced performance. CONCLUSION: Two reliable models, the HALT score and the H-reflex, were developed to predict bladder outcomes as early as 3 months after SCI onset. Importantly, this study provides hitherto undocumented evidence regarding the predictive significance of the soleus H-reflex in relation to bladder outcomes in SCI patients.