Abstract
Marker-based prediction holds great promise for improving current plant and animal breeding efficiencies. However, the predictabilities of complex traits are always severely affected by negative factors, including distant relatedness, environmental discrepancies, unknown population structures, and indeterminate numbers of predictive variables. In this study, we utilised two independent F(1) hybrid populations in the years 2012 and 2015 to predict rice thousand grain weight (TGW) using parental untargeted metabolite profiles with a partial least squares regression method. A stable predictive model for TGW was built based on hybrids from the population in 2012 (r = 0.75) but failed to properly predict TGW for hybrids from the population in 2015 (r = 0.27). After integrating hybrids from both populations into the training set, the TGW of hybrids could be predicted but was largely dependent on population structures. Then, core hybrids from each population were determined by principal component analysis and the TGW of hybrids in both environments were successfully predicted (r > 0.60). Moreover, adjusting the population structures and numbers of predictive analytes increased TGW predictability for hybrids in 2015 (r = 0.72). Our study demonstrates that the TGW of F(1) hybrids across environments can be accurately predicted based on parental untargeted metabolite profiles with a core hybridisation strategy in rice. Metabolic biomarkers identified from early developmental stage tissues, which are grown under experimental conditions, may represent a workable approach towards the robust prediction of major agronomic traits for climate-adaptive varieties.