Abstract
Like many other countries, the economy and society of Japan have been severely affected by the COVID-19 outbreak, and the fishery sector particularly seafood is no exception. Among seafood, since luxury seafood is more commonly consumed at restaurants it has a higher possibility of getting affected by the pandemic compared with cheap popular seafood for the masses. Considering this motivation, this study investigates the variations in the COVID-19 impact on luxury and cheap seafood prices in the Tokyo Toyosu wholesale market. Using the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL), the study identifies that an increase in the hours of stay-at-home during the initial stage of the pandemic is causing a negative influence on both cheap and luxury seafood prices and that this negative impact was severer in the luxury seafood prices. The study also finds a positive influence from the hours of stay-at-home on some cheap popular seafood like horse mackerel and sardine during the third state of emergency (SOE) where at least most of the elderly people have received their first vaccine dose but the negative impact from the SOE measure remained on luxury seafood. It is evident from the findings that the luxury seafood market is heavily dependent on the restaurant sector, which will likely suffer adverse effects when human mobility is restricted. In the event of a pandemic like COVID-19, policymakers should stabilize the price and provide subsidies to the luxury seafood stakeholders.