Abstract
A crucial step in inbred plant breeding is the choice of mating design to derive high-performing inbred varieties while also maintaining a competitive breeding population to secure sufficient genetic gain in future generations. In practice, the mating design usually relies on crosses involving the best parental inbred lines to ensure high mean progeny performance. This excludes crosses involving lower performing but more complementary parents in terms of favorable alleles. We predicted the ability of crosses to produce putative outstanding progenies (high mean and high variance progeny distribution) using genomic prediction models. This study compared the benefits and drawbacks of 7 genomic cross selection criteria (CSC) in terms of genetic gain for 1 trait and genetic diversity in the next generation. Six CSC were already published, and we propose an improved CSC that can estimate the proportion of progeny above a threshold defined for the whole mating plan. We simulated mating designs optimized using different CSC. The 835 elite parents came from a real breeding program and were evaluated between 2000 and 2016. We applied constraints on parental contributions and genetic similarities between selected parents according to usual breeder practices. Our results showed that CSC based on progeny variance estimation increased the genetic value of superior progenies by up to 5% in the next generation compared to CSC based on the progeny mean estimation (i.e. parental genetic values) alone. It also increased the genetic gain (up to 4%) and/or maintained more genetic diversity at QTLs (up to 4% more genic variance when the marker effects were perfectly estimated).