Abstract
OBJECTIVE: Coronary heart disease (CHD) is one of the major cardiovascular diseases, a common chronic disease in the elderly and a major cause of disability and death in the world. Currently, intensive care unit (ICU) patients have a high probability of concomitant coronary artery disease, and the mortality of this category of patients in the ICU is receiving increasing attention. Therefore, the aim of this study was to verify whether the composite inflammatory indicators are significantly associated with ICU mortality in ICU patients with CHD and to develop a simple personalized prediction model. METHOD: 7115 patients from the Multi-Parameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care Database IV were randomly assigned to the training cohort (n = 5692) and internal validation cohort (n = 1423), and 701 patients from the eICU Collaborative Research Database served as the external validation cohort. The association between various inflammatory indicators and ICU mortality was determined by multivariate Logistic regression analysis and Cox proportional hazards model. Subsequently, a novel predictive model for mortality in ICU patients with CHD was developed in the training cohort and performance was evaluated in the internal and external validation cohorts. RESULTS: Various inflammatory indicators were demonstrated to be significantly associated with ICU mortality, 30-day ICU mortality, and 90-day ICU mortality in ICU patients with CHD by Logistic regression analysis and Cox proportional hazards model. The area under the curve of the novel predictive model for ICU mortality in ICU patients with CHD was 0.885 for the internal validation cohort and 0.726 for the external validation cohort. The calibration curve showed that the predicted probabilities of the model matched the actual observed probabilities. Furthermore, the decision curve analysis showed that the novel prediction model had a high net clinical benefit. CONCLUSION: In ICU patients with CHD, various inflammatory indicators were independent risk factors for ICU mortality. We constructed a novel predictive model of ICU mortality risk in ICU patients with CHD that had great potential to guide clinical decision-making.