Abstract
Lower pH and elevated temperature alter phytoplankton growth and biomass in short-term incubations, but longer-term responses and adaptation potential are less well-studied. To determine the future of the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi, a mixed genotype culture from subantarctic water was incubated for 720 days under present-day temperature and pH, and also projected future conditions by the year 2100. The future population exhibited a higher growth rate relative to present-day cells transferred to future conditions after 309 days, indicating adaptation or genotype selection; this was reflected by an increase in optimum growth temperature of ~2.5°C by the end of the experiment. Following transfer to opposing conditions in short-term cross-over incubations, cell volume responded rapidly, within eight generations, confirming trait plasticity. The changes in growth rate and cell volume were larger than reported in previous single stressor relationships and incubations, suggesting synergistic or additive effects of combined elevated temperature and lower pH and highlighting the importance of long-term multiple stressor experiments. At the end of the incubation there were no significant differences in cellular composition (particulate organic content and chlorophyll a), or primary production between present-day and future populations. Conversely, two independent methods showed a 50% decrease in both particulate inorganic carbon and calcification rate, consistent with the decrease in cell volume, in the future population. The observed plasticity and adaptive capacity of E. huxleyi indicate resilience to future conditions in subantarctic waters, although changes in cell volume and carbonate may alter grazing loss and cell ballast, so influencing carbon export to the deep ocean.