Abstract
Gene expression is highly impacted by the environment and can be reflective of past events that affected developmental processes. It is therefore expected that gene expression can serve as a signal of a current or future phenotypic traits. In this paper we identify sets of genes, which we call Prognostic Transcriptomic Biomarkers (PTBs), that can predict firmness in Malus domestica (apple) fruits. In apples, all individuals of a cultivar are clones, and differences in fruit quality are due to the environment. The apples transcriptome responds to these differences in environment, which makes PTBs an attractive predictor of future fruit quality. PTBs have the potential to enhance supply chain efficiency, reduce crop loss, and provide higher and more consistent quality for consumers. However, several questions must be addressed. In this paper we answer the question of which of two common modeling approaches, Random Forest or ElasticNet, outperforms the other. We answer if PTBs with few genes are efficient at predicting traits. This is important because we need few genes to perform qPCR, and we answer the question if qPCR is a cost-effective assay as input for PTBs modeled using high-throughput RNA-seq. To do this, we conducted a pilot study using fruit texture in the 'Gala' variety of apples across several postharvest storage regiments. Fruit texture in 'Gala' apples is highly controllable by post-harvest treatments and is therefore a good candidate to explore the use of PTBs. We find that the RandomForest model is more consistent than an ElasticNet model and is predictive of firmness (r2 = 0.78) with as few as 15 genes. We also show that qPCR is reasonably consistent with RNA-seq in a follow up experiment. Results are promising for PTBs, yet more work is needed to ensure that PTBs are robust across various environmental conditions and storage treatments.